- Beyond the age of 55, the higher the age, the more the average age at death would increase.
- 6% of women and 2% of men born in 1940 could become centenarians.
If you had a baby this year, he could be 90 or even 100 years old. This is revealed by INSEE in a study published on 10 November. To establish this projection, the institute relied on a “central scenario”, namely a hypothesis that suggests that mortality risks will continue to decline over the next few years at the same rate as during the decade 2010-2019. As part of this research, the team looked at generational life expectancy, i.e. the average lifespan of a generation under the mortality conditions they experienced. or that she might experience in the future.
Life expectancy: babies born in 2022 will live longer
In France, the lifespan increases from generation to generation thanks to advances in medicine and better nutrition. According to projections, girls born in 2022 would live on average from 88 to 99 years old and boys from 86 to 96 years old. Clearly, life expectancy at birth would increase by 37 years for women and 42 years for men between the generation born in 1900 and that born in 2022. As a reminder, women born in 1900 lived an average of 56 years and boys born in 1900 lived an average of 48 years.
According to the study, women and men aged 20 in 2022 would live on average a little shorter (to 91 and 88 years respectively) because their age-specific risks of death are higher than those of younger generations.
Life expectancy at age 65 would stagnate for people born between 1941 and 1955
INSEE indicates that life expectancy at age 65 has increased for the generations born from 1900 to 1941, at the rate of 1.5 years for every ten years of birth for women and 1.6 years for men. On the other hand, the average remaining life at age 65 should stagnate for the generations born from 1941 to 1955, referred to here as the “tier” generations.
“It is likely, as assumed by the central scenario of the projections, that the less favorable evolution of mortality observed for the ‘level’ generations throughout their adult life persists at high ages. Indeed, their mortality does not decrease or little from the age of 15. This is explained in particular by their consumption of alcohol and tobacco, as well as by a greater risk of suicide than that of other generations”, can we read in the works.